What David Plouffe can do (and what he can't)

Jan 25, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

1. The news that 2008 campaign manager David Plouffe would expand his role within the Obama administration's political team created headlines over the weekend with the White House trying to sell it as a long-planned move. In an interview with on ABC's "This Week" David Axelrod, a senior adviser to the president, called the reaction to the revelation "overblown" and added: "I know that Washington loves the shake-up story. Washington loves the 'When are we going to throw a body out?' story. That's not how we roll." Of course, no White House likes to admit mistakes but it's hard not to see the expansion of Plouffe's role as a direct reaction to the party's stunning setback in Massachusetts six days ago. Plouffe is widely regarded within Obama's inner circle as simply the best-organized, most meticulous planner the party has and the belief is that he is the perfect person to avoid a repeat of Massachusetts, which is rightly blamed not on the candidate, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee or the White House, but all three. To lose a race in Massachusetts as a Democrat, it takes a series of blunders at all levels -- and that's what happened. While Plouffe may be the answer to many of the political side's organizational problems, he isn't likely to solve the biggest problem facing Democrats up for re-election in 2010: the flight of independents from their side.

2. With the retirement of Rep. Marion Berry (D) today, Arkansas becomes a major problem for Democrats who must defend two open House seats and Sen. Blanche Lincoln who, aside from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.), is the most endangered incumbent in the country this fall. Berry's seat gave Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) 59 percent and he carried retiring Rep. Vic Snyder's (D) Little Rock-area seat by ten points in 2008. Democrats have a deep bench in the state -- thanks, at least in part, to the lingering influence of former president Bill Clinton, but the demographics of the two districts make them instantly competitive. Lincoln's road, already tough, may grow tougher as soon as this week as speculation is running rampant that Rep. John Boozeman (R) is going to get into the Senate race. Boozeman, who won a special election to replace Asa Hutchinson (R) in 2001, spoke with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) late last week about a candidacy and Boozeman has the ability to significantly winnow the large field if he decides to run. Retirement rumors -- and talk of a possible primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter or Rep. Mike Ross -- run rampant around Lincoln who continues to struggle against little-known Republicans in independent polling.

3. Vice President Biden seemed to have made one of his characteristics gaffes over the weekend when a Wilmington News Journal columnist penned an article quoting the former senator as saying that his son -- Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden -- did not want to run for the state's open Senate seat this fall. But, Biden was vindicated when his office provided a transcript of the interview in which it is clear he is referring to interim Sen. Ted Kaufman rather than his own son and the paper issued a correction. "Talk Ted into running, if Beau doesn't," Biden said. "Talk him into running -- he respects you." While that quote is far less agita-inducing for Senate Democratic strategists, it can't be entirely calming either. It's clear that Joe Biden is trying to put a "Plan B" into place in the event his son doesn't run. That effort coupled with Beau Biden's extended delay in announcing his future political plans -- his allies insist the slowdown is due to an ongoing pediatrician pedophilia case -- is sure to stoke talk that Biden the younger is going to take a pass this time. If he does so, Delaware, one of the most Democratic states in the country, will almost certainly be represented by a Republican as Rep. Mike Castle (R), a former governor, is in the race and running strong.

4. It doesn't take a political (rocket) scientist to see that Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley's (D) defeat in last Tuesday's special election is very bad news for embattled Gov. Deval Patrick. (In fact, we named him one our "losers" in the wake of the result last week in the Bay State.) A new poll conducted by the Washington Post in Massachusetts reveals just how badly damaged Patrick is in the eyes of the state's voters. (The poll's sample included 880 voters in the special election as well as 242 adults who didn't vote.) Just one in three voters (36 percent) approved of the job Patrick is doing while 60 percent disapproved. Among those who voted for state Sen. Scott Brown (R) in the special election, Patrick's numbers were downright dismal: 15 percent approve/82 percent disapprove. Even among Coakley voters -- the most loyal of the Democratic base, presumably -- Patrick's numbers were not as strong as they should be (60 percent approve/35 percent disapprove). While Patrick and his advisers (among them the aforementioned David Plouffe) continue to put faith in the state's Democratic tendencies and the likelihood of a three-way race -- state Treasurer Tim Cahill has left the Democratic party to run as an independent -- these numbers suggest that voters may well be in an "anyone but Patrick" mood in the fall. And, remember that a strong third party candidate couldn't save former New Jersey governor Jon Corzine (D) last fall.

5. We are already getting ready for President Obama's State of the Union address -- his first -- on Wednesday night. We'll be live twittering the proceedings at "TheHyperFix" -- so you best sign up to follow it immediately! And, while you're at it, sign up for our slightly more leisurely Twitter feed over at "TheFix." (The latter made Twitter's recommended feeds list for politics!)